![]() Know your local voter and appeal to them. The success of regional parties is a simple formula. You will find plenty of overlap with our True Western Representation platform. People thinking of supporting the PPC in the West have a home here in Maverick. ![]() Bernier speaks to the frustrations of many people across Canada and they are valid frustrations. Heck, even the NDP piles on a mountain of debt every election. Ask the Green Party, running any semblance of a national campaign in a country as big as this one is a tall order for smaller parties. Without a region to call his home, he stretches his resources far too thin. The unfortunate tragedy is that conditions in Canada must get much worse for Bernier to ever catch on with any sizeable segment of the population. He clearly resonates with a small and dedicated base of supporters. He runs a platform strikingly similar to other populist, anti-establishment politicians. I think his angle is he wants to be the Canadian Geert Wilders. It is not as if the Conservative Party is so broke that they cannot drive a bus along the Yellowhead and stop in at each town. Your votes do not matter and you do not give him enough money to get his attention. Small-town Sask has probably never seen him except on TV. The only way Calgary sees him is when he attends fundraisers or debates. So whenever that next election is and against whom ever it may be will not change the fact that Pierre will spend it campaigning for seats in GTA, Montreal mainland, and Atlantic Canada. I certainly know that the one thing unchanged from 2019 is that the West still does not decide the election. Did Toronto, Montreal, and Atlantic Canada suddenly have an epiphany and will decide to vote for a Conservative? I doubt it. Sourceĭo you see the pattern yet? Pierre is sitting today almost exactly where Andrew Scheer sat in 2018/2019. Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Atlantic Canada all voted Liberal and the rest did not matter. They won the popular vote but it did not matter. Do you remember seeing that solid blue map from the Red River west to the Fraser? Not a single prairie riding turned red between Winnipeg and metro Vancouver. They made a huge tactical mistake believing that Quebec would reward them. Toronto and Montreal wanted nothing to do with the Conservative Party. He was reduced to a minority government, but since the NDP agree with just about everything he has had a functional majority for most of the time since then. Despite an insane blackface scandal, Trudeau won again. The pre-campaign spending was ramping up and conservatives flirted with high 30s in support. In the summer 2019, the most anticipated election in recent memory was in full swing. Andrew Scheer is selected as the new Conservative leader and Maxime Bernier runs off to create the PPC. I want you to think back to 2018 in the lead up to Trudeau’s first re-election. There is just one problem: we have been here before. ![]() The latest polling data shows Conservative support at 40% which is about where majority territory is. So the winds are certainly blowing in Trudeau’s face. How did we even get to this moment? It is not like anyone saw this coming. No matter how nice their hair is, all leaders grow stale over time and get the boot. Likewise, Trudeau has been in power for 8 years at this point. That is common wisdom and there are certainly exceptions to the general rule. When the economy is doing poorly, the party in power gets kicked out. The economy and incumbent polling often go hand in hand. It is no coincidence that the economy is likewise dragging down the Liberal Party polling numbers. It would show up somewhere, like a 50,000% increase in electronics exports or something.Īnyways, the point is that an extra 1% here or there does not change the fact that Canada’s economy is stuck in quicksand just like our proverbial moose. The raw data that drives these numbers is so complicated I am fairly sure not a single person in Ottawa knows enough to manipulate them in a way that would be convincing. Does that mean Statistics Canada is covering for the Liberals? Well, no. ![]() You will recall that we contracted in Q2 as well. Statistics Canada quietly revised their Q2 numbers upward. ![]() Canada’s economy contracted in the latest economic update. What do our economy, the Liberal Party, and a moose stuck in quicksand have in common? They are all sinking. ![]()
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